ABOUT THE BOOK

Reuben was born with an innate ability to predict earthquakes with astonishing accuracy. In July 1935, he forecast  fifteen earthquakes with 87% accuracy. That inspired the New York Times to declare Reuben the Earthquake Prophet. But the Science Editor of the Times withdrew that appellation, suggesting that Reuben’s accomplishment was no more than statistical noise. After noting that there are 60,000 earthquakes a year and at least 9,000 of them can be felt, the editor wrote that some predictions were likely to be correct. He wrote “An ingenious manipulator of earthquake records might even correlate them with the rise and fall of U.S.”

Reuben believed in his heart that his skill was a special gift. but as time passed, the predictions became more infrequent and populated with disturbing mistakes and failures. Still, Reuben believed his predictions had a sound mathematical basis and he spent his life chasing the equations, which he described as his model. As those predictions waxed and waned, Reuben defended his calls, arguing that his hand-cranked 1918 calculator was prone to computational errors. The ‘gift’ evolved into a ‘grift’ as Reuben aged, but no one anticipated the unbelievable accuracy that he delivered on the 1971 Sylmar, California earthquake. Reuben’s error was two minutes in time, and a tenth of a point in magnitude (Richter Scale).

Reuben always  wanted to call the “Big One,” the next big shake in San Francisco. The same day that he delivered the Sylmar prediction to a reporter, he also delivered a prediction for a Big One in San Francisco in January 1973. After Sylmar, the stories in the press about the predicted San Francisco shake exploded worldwide.

That led to frenzy in the San FRancisco  Bay Area as 1972 drew to a close. Estranged from his family, Reuben’s nephews tracked him down in spring 1972 and met him for the first time. Scientists themselves (mathematician and physicist), they wanted to see Reuben’s model. But Reuben cautioned his equations weren’t compete. Pesky earth tides required completion. As the year wound down, the nephews found their uncle a walking, talking, mystery. “The equations,” he’d say, “were prone to computational error, but in just a few more weeks they’ll be complete.” That story supported a life of “grift” as Reuben exploited his history of accurate shakes. for consulting income.